Daily Oil Prices - WTI Oil Price Chart 4th June 2009
Whilst the early falls in crude oil prices were undoubtedly triggered by a strong rebound in the US dollar, thereby confirming the strong link between the energy complex and the currency markets, the decline in daily oil prices in the latter part of the oil trading session was accelerated by a combination of the EIA figures, which showed a surprise build of 2.9mb in stocks against market expectations of a slight draw, and a weakening in the equity markets. Indeed financial experts are beginning to question the sustainability of the recent market rally with many expecting the current downturn to continue unabated. Interestingly, this week has also seen His Highness Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan calling the top of the market by selling all 1.3bn of his Barclays shares, a decision which followed the Qatar Investment Authority, which trimmed its stake from 6.4pc to 5.8pc in April. Moving forward it is the currency markets which will continue to be the main drivers for crude oil prices.
From a technical perspective daily oil prices experienced a further failure at the $69 per barrel, eventually losing $2.22 (3%) to close the day at $65.92. The move was significant but somewhat expected given that markets do undergo occasional consolidation in reaction to the type of strong rallies that crude has experienced lately. Nevertheless the 9 day moving average proved to be a good support level and it remains to be seen if the fall is set to continue, or after a much needed breather crude is now ready to aim higher. Technically the upwards trend remains intact, and with a deep wick to the bottom of the candle, coupled with the bounce from the 9 day moving average, this candle suggests that this is only a temporary pullback, and not a longer term reversal to the trend. Technically this is a different picture for that of both gold and silver, where the daily candle has provided a bearish engulfing signal, but again in both cases ( as with the oil chart), the 9 day moving average has provided solid support to the low of the day, suggesting that this reversal is only temporary, and that the bullish trend in oil prices should be re-established in due course.
The short term trend is sideways, and the medium and long term trends are bullish.
WTI:
Support: $64.96 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $70.53 (high of 30/10/08)
Support: $64.74 (low of 29/05/09) Resistance: $69.21 (high of 29/10/08)
Support: $62.77 (low of 28/05/09) Resistance: $68.96 (yesterday’s high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $64.91 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $70.15 (high of 16/10/08)
Support: $63.96 (low of 29/05/09) Resistance: $68.87 (high of 22/10/08)
Support: $61.78 (low of 28/05/09) Resistance: $68.65 (yesterday’s high)
DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)
Crude +2.9 (-1.6) Distillates +1.7 (+1.2) Gasoline -0.2 (+0.1)
Oil Stats 3rd June 2009
DOE: US Crude Oil Stocks +2.866M Bbl vs forecast of -1.6M Bbl
DOE: US Gasoline Stocks -0.215M Bbl vs forecast of +0.1M Bbl
DOE: US Distillate Stocks +1.661M Bbl vs forecast of +1.2M Bbl
Refinery Capacity ran at 86.26% vs forecast of 85.50%
Daily Oil Prices - WTI Oil Price Chart 3rd June 2009
Following the recent rally in crude oil prices, it is becoming increasingly evident that the whole energy complex is once again perceived as an ‘asset class’, a view increasingly reinforced with interest rates now virtually at zero, and likely to remain there for some time to come. Whilst a steady tone in the equity markets [...]
WTI Crude Oil Price Chart - Daily Oil Price 2nd June 2009
With markets seeming to feel that the global economy is in the midst of experiencing a V shaped recovery as evidenced by yet further triple digit gains in the Dow Jones the oil market too is benefiting from this optimism and inflows which resulted in the price of crude oil rising for a fifth day
Daily Oil Prices - WTI Crude Oil Prices Chart 1st June 2009
Despite bearish fundamentals for the oil market - brimming inventories, over supply and plenty of spare capacity as well as a complete disconnect between supply and demand crude oil prices continue to soar higher. The reason? Chronic and generalised US dollar weakness as traders and investors turn to commodities (gold and oil especially) both as
Oil Prices for May 2009
Monthly Oil Chart May 2009
Crude oil prices hit over $66 a barrel on Friday, setting a fresh high for the year and confirming their biggest monthly gain in over 10 years. July contract for Nymex WTI rose 92 cents and at one point touched $66.03 (up 29.8% this month).
